How often have you heard someone complain they got unlucky and lost their bet? On the other hand, you've definitely come across people telling you sports betting isn't gambling as it requires a lot of skill. So, what exactly is the truth behind luck's effect on betting?

Like most things in life, both parties have valid points. Obviously, there's a lot of luck involved in sports events, but you also need to be knowledgeable and skilled if you want to gain an edge against sportsbooks.

Let's take a look at both sides of the coin and see what role luck and skill play in sports betting and what you can do as a player to optimize your betting.

(Un)Lucky Yet Again

Let's get one thing straight – sports betting is a game of probability, which means there's definitely luck involved. If anyone tells you they've found the secret recipe to winning 100% of the time, run as fast as you can (unless they're talking about arbitrage bets).

This doesn't mean it's just a luck game, though. While it is a form of gambling, sports betting isn't as straightforward as roulette in terms of luck. And that's because not all odds are created to reflect the chance of an outcome equally.

In American roulette (assuming its integrity), you always have a 1 in 38 chance of hitting a number. However, when you place a bet of +900 odds (10% implied probability), it doesn't mean it'll win one out of 10 times on average.

That's because the sportsbook's vig is also incorporated into the odds. And the actual probability of the bet to hit might be determined to be way higher or way lower, but we'll talk about this more in-depth later on.

So, how does luck affect the result? When a basketball team scores a buzzer beater from downtown, one side throws arms in the air to celebrate, while the other wants to throw their phone to the wall.

If you've bet on a player to score two three-pointers and they're 0/11 while they usually shoot around 40%, you're unlucky (and so are they). If that same player is 7/11 instead, they're very lucky. If they get injured before they've even shot one field goal, you better hope your sportsbook voids the bet.

It's Only a Matter of Skill

You might hear this phrase from people who want to believe they're expert bettors. While there is some truth to that, it's not like poker, where skill and high volume can take variance out of the equation.

Yes, there are skillful bettors out there who have a high edge against oddsmakers and can find great value bets. However, unless they're placing tens of thousands of bets per year, they may end up victims to variance, which can lead to lengthy losing or winning streaks.

So, how do the pros become so good at finding high-value plays? The basic concept behind this is the positive expected value (+EV). Through in-depth research using all the latest stats, data, projections, and even betting algorithms, professional handicappers can determine +EV plays.

These are picks that have a projected probability that's much higher than their implied odds. For instance, they might find a -120 favorite (implied probability of 54.55%) to actually have a 60% chance to win, so their odds should have been around -150. That's essentially a high-value play, and the more plays they find, the more profit they can make.

But of course there is luck involved, which is why they always need to stay sharp and not be discouraged by loss streaks. If they truly have an advantage, it'll show up in the long run.

That's also where concepts like bankroll management come into play. The true professionals don't really risk more than 5% of their total bankroll on each play because they know a series of losses can ruin their balance.

Instead, they steadily collect their small profits whenever they come and calculate their win percentage and ROI (Return On Investment) at the end of the season.

How to Optimize Your Betting

So, what can you do to improve your betting game and take luck out of it as much as possible? The first thing is to actually start treating it as a game of numbers. You're not betting on which team will win; you're betting on certain odds that should have been much lower.

To do this, you must study greatly before placing every bet. Look at things like:

• Player and team statistics

• Injury reports

• Recent form

• Matchup history

• Weather conditions (yes, the weather can significantly affect the outcome of a game)

Also, make sure to learn from your mistakes instead of blaming it on luck. If the team you bet on loses in the final few seconds of the game, don't just say you got unlucky (even if you did). Find numerical data that could help you improve and not repeat the same mistakes in the long term.

Don't let short-term success or failure blind you. If you truly have a mathematical edge, it will eventually show, and you will become profitable. Just remain disciplined and follow your bankroll management plan until you get there.

Some professional bettors don't even bother dealing with luck. They've just accepted that every successful pass or shot may come down to good luck (and bad luck for missed shots, respectively). So, you can never truly know how much luck affects each game, so you can only rely on your research and skill.

If you don't want to go through all the hassle of researching for every single bet, you can always follow a sports picks group, like Datawise ;). With Datawise you get access to a reputable community of sports cappers, all over our advanced software to find profitable plays, and access to our invaluable knowledge to help improve your game.